by Brad Brevet
November 20, 2018
As the month progresses, the annual box office will receive a generous boost from this long holiday weekend. The five-day Thanksgiving frame will see Disney debut the animated sequel Ralph breaks the internet, MGM will punch out with Credo II and the launch of Lionsgate's Robin Hood We hope to steal some of the excess booty. In addition, drag movies like Fantastic beasts: The crimes of Grindelwald Y The Grinch will add your own contributions to the bottom line.
At the top of the box office, look for Disney Animation & # 39; s Ralph breaks the internet to give the studio the Thanksgiving crown for the third year in a row. Last year Coconut palm delivered a five-day opening for $ 72.9 million while the previous year Moana raised $ 82 million, the second largest five-day Thanksgiving of all time. In fact, Disney owns ten of the first eleven Thanksgiving openings of five days and Ralph You will look for your own place on the list, challenging for a place in the global top five.
Debuting in 4,014 theaters, Ralph breaks the internet it is already the widest Thanksgiving opener of all time and a look at the views of the IMDb page during the two weeks before the publication shows that it has been progressing very similarly to Coconut palm while actually surpassing Moana. Online ticket retailer Fandango.com also reports that they are seeing similar trends with the movie beating the original Break Ralph as well as both Moana Y Coconut palm At the same point of the Fandango sales cycle. More good news comes in the way of reviews, which are on par with the first film, since it currently has a score of 72 on Metacritic and a healthy 92% on RottenTomatoes.
Disney is currently anticipating a five-day debut in the $ 60 million, while we look for something a little higher. $ 71.8 million for the five days. The main thing that keeps us from going higher is the question of the loyalty of the audience to the Ralph franchise (the last installment was six years ago), as well as general competition, including Illumination & # 39; s The Grinch, the launch of a week of Fantastic beasts: The crimes of Grindelwald and even Credo II for that matter, he seems to make large numbers of his own.
Internationally, Ralph North America opens in a handful of international markets, including Russia (November 22) and China and Mexico, on November 23. Releases in the United Kingdom and Spain will begin the following week with an extended release then, with debuts until February.
In the position of runner-up, look for an explosive debut for MGM Credo II. The initial industry follow-up suggested that the movie could last for five days between $ 47 and 53 million and we expect it to increase further. The first film eliminated $ 42.1 million in its first five days, and a look at the display data on the IMDb page shows the follow-up to the sequel almost in line with its predecessor, which is great news for a tracking feature .
The comments for the movie are not. quite at the same level as the first, but that should not have much impact if we wait Credo II to deliver through $ 54 million In its first five days of release from 3,441 locations.
In third place is WB Fantastic beasts: The crimes of Grindelwald, which did not reach the opening weekend of its predecessor last week and, as if it were not enough, on Monday $ 5.07 million of the film marked a -67% slide versus Sunday's number, while the first film fell -63.5%. As a result, we are seeing a fall of the second weekend of -53% for a $ 29 million Three days and five rough days around $ 41 million.
Universal and Lighting The Grinch He faces his first real competition this weekend with the launch of Ralph breaks the internet, but given the festive theme of the film, it should have some lasting power. We are entering the weekend anticipating a fall of around -39% and a five-day yield moving towards $ 33 million.
Rounding out the top five, look for Fox & # 39; s Bohemian Rhapsody tdip around 28% for a $ 16 million Five days as it approaches the $ 150 million nationwide.
Out of the top five is where we expect to find the release of Summit & # 39; s Lionsgate Robin Hood. Debuting at ~ 2,700 locations, the study anticipates a five-day opening among teens from medium to high level, but given the competition and the incredible reviews, 16% at RottenTomatoes and 33 at Metacritic, we are having a hard time waiting for this to reach the $ 15 million for the five days. The draft that we have focused on is the launch of Fox 2016 Assassin & # 39; s Creed, which delivered $ 17.7 million in its first five days of release, but the awareness and anticipation of that particular movie seemed to eclipse the latter. Robin Hood The adaptation could wait. That said, the display performance of the IMDb page shows Robin Hood surpassing slightly Assassin & # 39; s Creed during the two weeks before the launch, but we are still covering our bets and anticipating a period of five days $ 14.5 million.
On the other hand, Universal is expanding the launch of Green Book this weekend after his debut in 25 places last weekend with $ 320k. We had a difficult time with comps for this, but finally we decided on The book thief Despite the gender difference. Both films did not exactly blow up the doors in limited release, but they were strongly supported by their studies. In general, we see Green Book bringing around $ 3-4 million for the three days and a general performance of five days in the $ 5-6 million range while the study is looking for a performance anywhere of $ 6-8 million.
Waiting until Friday, Sony will expand the launch of The front runner in ~ 500 locations, while Fox Searchlight debuts The favorite in four places.
The three-day and five-day forecasts for this weekend are directly below. This publication will be updated in the coming days, followed by a full summary of Sunday morning's weekend.
THREE DAYS WEEKEND PROGNOSIS
- Ralph breaks the internet – $ 50.0 M
- Credo 2 – $ 38.0 M
- Fantastic beasts: The crimes of Grindelwald (4,163 theaters) – $ 29.0 M
- Dr. Seuss & # 39; The Grinch – $ 23.54 M
- Bohemian Rhapsody – $ 11.9 M
- Instant family – $ 10.6 M
- Robin Hood – $ 10.0 M
- Widows – $ 7.6 M
- Green Book – $ 3.2 M
- A star has been born – $ 2.6 M
WEEKEND FORECAST FOR FIVE DAYS
- Ralph breaks the internet (4,017 theaters) – $ 71.8 M
- Credo 2 (3,441 theaters) – $ 54.5 M
- Fantastic beasts: The crimes of Grindelwald (4,163 theaters) – $ 41.3 M
- Dr. Seuss & # 39; The Grinch – $ 33.0 M
- Bohemian Rhapsody – $ 16.5 M
- Instant family (3,286 theaters) – $ 14.5 M
- Robin Hood (~ 2,700 theaters) – $ 14.2 M
- Widows – $ 10.5 M
- Green Book (1,063 theaters) – $ 5.0 M
- A star has been born (1,350 theaters) – $ 3.5 M
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